ATLANTIC OCEAN (Feb. 27, 2010) The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77), the Navy's 10th and final Nimitz-class aircraft carrier, keels hard to starboard during high-speed turn drills. George H.W. Bush is underway in the Atlantic Ocean supporting fleet training operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Micah P. Blechner/Released)

Hat Tip: Unto The Breach

Supply fears start to hit Treasuries

The bond vigilantes are finally flexing their muscles. A long period of stability for the US government bond market showed signs of cracking this week as a lack of investor appetite for new debt sent the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest level since last June. For more than a year, analysts have been warning that record sized debt sales by the US Treasury were at odds with a 10-year yield sitting comfortably below 4 per cent. This week, the yield on 10-year notes jumped from 3.65 per cent to a peak of 3.92 per cent on Thursday. On Friday it was 3.87 per cent.

“The spotlight on Greece only helped to reveal that the US’s kitchen – with Federal and state budget balances – was itself full of cockroaches,” says William O’Donnell, strategist at RBS Securities.
It hasn’t helped that the US announced a big overhaul of its healthcare system this month, adding to worries about the scale of US spending."

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Stop and Must Read

Today, we find this headline on MSNBC.com and the following article:

Health Care Overhaul Knocks Profits at Major US Firms

Several major U.S. companies said the health care overhaul will cost them millions of dollars this year, but the White House dismissed their complaints, saying it was simply closing a tax loophole. said Friday that it would record a $1 billion non-cash charge for the current quarter related to the bill. The operator, whose annual revenue is expected to be $124.1 billion this year, said the charge is the result of a provision in the law related to the tax treatment of Medicare subsidies.

AT&T also said it will be evaluating prospective changes to the health care benefits it offers.

Diversified manufacturer 3M said it will take a charge of $85 to $90 million in its first quarter as a result of health reform.

These announcements followed statements from manufacturers Deere and Caterpillar , which said on Thursday that they are expecting a combined $250 million in charges this year as a result of changes to the $2.5 trillion U.S. health care system.

They can no longer deduct from their taxes the subsidies paid by the federal government for retiree drug benefits.

We also find this story on MSNBC.com:

Jobless Rate Rose in 27 States in February; Four Hit Records

Unemployment continued to rise several states in February—even breaking records in some states, according to government data released Friday.

And then we read this story in the Boston Globe:

Social Security will pay more in benefits than it receives in payroll taxes in the current fiscal year, six years earlier than expected, the Congressional Budget Office reported yesterday.Last spring, Social Security trustees reported that expenses would exceed revenue beginning in 2016. Since then, applications for benefits have increased because people are retiring early due to the recession, and that, combined with high unemployment, means fewer workers paying taxes.

Add this story to the mix: CBO: Debt Will Rise to 90% of GDP
That is more than twice all the Presidents before him combined since George Washington!

President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget will generate nearly $10 trillion in cumulative budget deficits over the next 10 years, $1.2 trillion more than the administration projected, and raise the federal debt to 90 percent of the nation's economic output by 2020, the Congressional Budget Office reported Thursday.The federal public debt, which was $6.3 trillion ($56,000 per household) when Mr. Obama entered office amid an economic crisis, totals $8.2 trillion ($72,000 per household) today, and it's headed toward $20.3 trillion (more than $170,000 per household) in 2020, according to CBO's deficit estimates.

That figure would equal 90 percent of the estimated gross domestic product in 2020, up from 40 percent at the end of fiscal 2008. By comparison, America's debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 109 percent at the end of World War II, while the ratio for economically troubled Greece hit 115 percent last year.

What do you get when you add all of these stories together?

Personal Income Drops Across the Country - WSJ

Interest rates rise after Treasury auction of seven-year notes draws less demand- Yahoo Finance

Half of U.S. Home Loan Modifications Default Again After Nine Months - Business Week

Fed's Warsh warns against inflation risk complacency - Reuters